북한급변사태와 중국의 군사개입 전망
Possibility of Cataclysm in North Korea and Probability of China's Military Intervention
North Korea's sudden change will decide NK's fate, and influence on peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. Intervention of major powers will dominate the course of reunification of the two Koreas. How can we prospect China's military intervention in NK if sudden change occurs? What is China's strategic interests, and what is China's choice among unilateral intervention, MNF, and UN PKO? China's intervention in the NK's sudden change would be unavoidable whatever the way would be. China has to be concerned about the negative impacts from instability of NK in terms of internal politics and economy, and the possibility of advent of anti-China and pro-US regime in NK. If reunification of the Korean peninsula can be achieved under the influence of the US, China will be poised in a very vulnerable position in future strategic rivalry with the US. For China's interests toward the Korean peninsula, unilateral intervention would be the most favorable, but its costs are too high. On the contrary, UN PKO will be a desirable option for the costs, but China should yield most its vested rights on NK. Then, MNF under China's initiative will be a rational choice for intervention.
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