Research on the Debate on the "Chinese Threat Theory" and its Effect on the Peninsula
i, 61 p.
중국위협론 한반도 반중국위협론;
- 원문 URL
It is commonly said that the 21st century is the age of the Asia-Pacific. The asian population numbers up to 3 billion of which China occupies 1.2 billion and Taiwan, Hong Kong, and descendants chinese origin occupies 1.3 billion. Thus, as Deng-Xiao Ping said the age of the Asia-Pacific is impossible without the development of China. However, future development has been gravely looked upon with China's foreign and domestic environment worsening in the face of an aggravation Chinese regime, an unbalanced political-economic society, a demand for democratization after the return of Hong Kong to mainland China, and an deteriorating relationship with the US. As we look over the energetic change of China's political power relation and economic development during the last year of the 20th Century, we need to evaluate and reexamine the need to strengthen our diplomatic unification policy developed with an emphasis on the "North Policy," and our policy against China developed with an emphasis on economic relation. Without any infatuation on visible results of simple principle reasoning or statistical interpretation or self-centered mind, we need to develope our diplomatic strategy against China which maximizes the demand of our nation's interest while examining the changes of East Asia and China's political power relation. The relationship between North Korea and China which, began to appeal after official Korean and Chinese diplomatic relations began in 1992, started to ameliorate with 35th anniversary of th Mutual Co-operation and Mutual Aid Treaty conclusion signed in July, 1996. A mutual need for each other under a new world order has arisen as the main reason with China valuing the military security and strategic factor and with North Korea valuing the suppressive nature of anti-Kim, Jung-Il factions within the regime as well as the need to acquire a comparative advantage in counter south Korean Military forces in the face of the threat of unification by absorbtion. One of the special fact to watch is the Chinese Government's chances of engaging in conflict which written on both N. Korea and China friendly cooperation treaty and the bilateral assistance treaty in terms of two countries' military strategy. Chinese Government insists that they oppose any country's war attempting to keep stable and peaceful Korean Peninsular. Reversely that means that they may automatically engage in any conflict if something happen in Korean Peninsular. Especially, it may go that way if N. Korea and China keep their friendly cooperation treaty and bilateral assistance treaty which clearly indicate the automatic engagement in both country's military actions. So their military relationship will not change for a while to have stable Korean Peninsular for the need of Chinese Government's military strategy and restraining N. Korea's adventurism to form the environment for the Chinese Government's priority of economic development. In addition to that, Chinese Government's chance of giving up N. Korea is very low, because of Kim, Jung-Il regime's unstability and their economic problem. Currently S. Korea and China's relationship has many positive signs to enhance the bilateral cooperation between two countries. Now Chinese people shows more good will to S. Korean than N. Korean and two countries increase the numbers of relationship in every fields including political, economical and cultural field. It makes two countries' relationship more friendly and close. As a result, many people mention Korea and China's developing relationship in relation to North East Asian cooperative era and choses this topic as an active political and economic subject. But to make China's intimidation on the Korean peninsula truly unworthy, we need to develop a macro and long-term strategy based on one administrative plan in 4way Talks and APEC.