Estimating spectrum requirement for IMT systems: An empirical analysis in Bangladesh using diffusion models
MD SOHEL RANA
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In recent years, mobile voice and broadband data traffic is increasing at a multifactorial annual growth rate in Bangladesh. This development visibly point out the promising growth of the usage of mobile devices to access internet. The potential escalation in demand for voice and mobile broadband data services is expected to set strain on the mobile communication networks and hence the necessity for predicting the dispersion of mobile subscriptions and the sufficient spectrum requirement to meet the forthcoming demand. To forecast the mobile subscriptions in Bangladesh, first we compute the market potential and diffusion parameters from 2G mobile subscriptions data of Bangladesh by fitting into Logistic, Gompertz and Bass model using nonlinear least square (NLS) regression. It is found that the projected subscriptions will be 107 mobile phones per 100 inhabitants at the end of 2020 and saturation point will be 121.06 mobile phones per 100 inhabitants by 2032. In addition of subscriptions forecastion, we estimate the spectrum requirement based on the forecasted mobile subscriptions using spectrum requirement estimation method for International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) adopted by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The estimated spectrum requirement for smooth diffusion of next generation mobile communication services in Bangladesh is 1380 MHz at 2020.