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헝가리 체제전환 25년의 경제적 성과 분석 원문보기

  • 저자

    김용희

  • 학위수여기관

    한국외국어대학교 대학원

  • 학위구분

    국내박사

  • 학과

    국제관계학과

  • 지도교수

    박노호

  • 발행년도

    2014

  • 총페이지

    160 p

  • 키워드

    헝가리 체제전환 중동부유럽 EU 가입;

  • 언어

    kor

  • 원문 URL

    http://www.riss.kr/link?id=T13538829&outLink=K  

  • 초록

    An Analysis of Hungary's Economic Achievements 25 Years after the Transition Hungary's system transition from the socialist plan economy to the capitalist market economy and also from the communist dictatorship to democracy, beginning from 1989 until now, would be characterized as a comprehensive reform of political and economic systems as well as the systems of administration, foreign-relation, and society. Especially, the introduction of market economy implied abandoning 45-year old Soviet-style state-run economic system and adopting instead Western-style market-centered economic system, through economic transformation policy and economic stabilization policy. The vast size of foreign debt and the worst economic situation of Hungary were the background of the breakup in the planned economy, namely, of a change into market economy system. It was possible to introduce representative democracy and market economy by the consensus among Hungarian political powers, both ruling and opposition parties. It would be possible for Hungary to drive a change into market economy through gradual strategy, being gradual since Hungary had already then rich and successful experiences of reform, the Hungarian Revolution of 1956 and the pursue of the New Economic Mechanism (NEM) started in 1968. Also, as the considerable level of a price reform was experienced following the mid 1980s, the two-tier banking system was stably maintained. Hungary showed tendency of having focused on microeconomic policy like the modification of legislation for establishing market economy and the foundation of financial system, rather than macroeconomic stabilization policy in the early stage of the system transformation. There were side effects as well caused by a drastic reform in price and wage and a reform such as trade deregulation, depreciation in the value of the Hiungarian Forint, and a subsidy cut for enterprises in the turning point of the system. However, the strategy of gradualism was conducive to establishing market economy system in advance. Especially, it contributed to inhibiting inflation and to maintaining fiscal deficit at the small-scale level. In addition, the process of privatization was successfully driven along with foreign capital inflow by enforcing consistent policy such as sticking to the open bidding method rather than free distribution in the process of defining an ownership that was the most subtle in the process of a change into market economy. To solve macroeconomic instability in the double structure of inflation and budget deficit, Hungary strived to standardize tax system and to reduce subsidies to state-run but lax enterprises. As a plan for coping with economic imbalance such as huge budget deficit and foreign loan of having been continued from old system, the retrenchment policy and the appropriate exchange rate policy were enforced in the financial and fiscal fields. Especially, to reduce budget expenditure of the public sector, the employment fund and the pension fund were allowed to be changed from state-run to market-centered system. In the mid-1990s, Hungary almost recovered real GDP level prior to the beginning of transition process, got into the phase of economic growth, and was evaluated to show eye-opening performance in changing the basic frame of the general national economy into capitalist market economic system. Also, it was changed into multi-layer pension system through legislating pension reform in 1997. As this was what gives a right to select subscription to the accumulated fund for personal pension, the payment of pension came to be functioned by the power of free market. As pension system was the key agenda especially in Hungary, a reform was essential. Restructuring is under development even now. The integration of EU with Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) including Hungary implied to complete the integration of European single market, and simultaneously had significance in which system transition of the CEECs into market economy has been deepened and completed by their EU memberships. In Hungary of the year in 1994, the implementation into market economy was formed and progressed through joining EU and its joining preparation, being readjusted into 'preliminary membership' and being emphasized the convergence of EU community law (Aquis Communautaire). In other words, joining EU became direct motive in a change of profit in social structure, and system, and a state of being implemented. Many economic, political and social changes led to the direct outcome of EU combination process. In that EU membership leads to being available for preferential approach to large-scale market that is geographically close, it was judged to be possibly an opportunity for economic regeneration. To solve economic gap from Western Europe, it was needed the financial support of EU, the security of export market, and the inducement of foreign investment. Thus, it strived to sincerely implement with accepting the demand of EU without any problem. The benefits of Structure Fund and CAP subsidy with which EU is operating for solving a gap in development among countries and protecting primary industry are being distributed to CEECs including Hungary. According to joining EU, the trading environment was improved by modification in infrastructure and legal system. According to being enrolled automatically in the customs union, the common external tariffs of EU were implemented. It came to automatically join even free trade agreement that EU concluded. This led to the formation of trade arrangements through the perfect free trade within EU and the trade-regulation enforcement. A rise even in transactional scale with the second member countries as well as in trade with the existing EU member countries led to having been increased trade creation effect. Hungary achieved economic performance by having foothold as EU membership such as securing overseas market and improving market competitiveness of enterprises within the native country, escaping from narrow domestic market according to the removal of trade barriers. Big merits include low export cost, preparation for infrastructure, and good-quality workforce. Even labor cost is low, thereby being still evaluated to have great potential value as the production base. However, it also suffered serious economic stagnation because of having been exposed to structural vulnerability such as a rise in financial risk caused by being weak in macroeconomic foundation in the process of being spread the financial crisis in Europe along with excessive dependence upon Western Europe. It is being developed now the experiment of adjusting open economic policy in Hungary, thereby being difficult to be concluded. However, potentiality as an emerging market is great. It is pointing to open policy and world trade based on the export-led growth policy. Expansion and functional deepening in EU are advanced. Its importance is getting higher as the formation of huge European economic bloc is visualized by which Europe and its surrounding regions are gradually integrated economically focusing on EU.


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