의회제 국가의 내각안정성 형성경로에 관한 경험적 비교연구: 영국 · 일본 교차사례 분석
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Cabinet Stability under the Parliamentary Systems: An Empirical Cross-cases Analysis of the United Kingdom and Japan This study attempts to delineate the causal impact of political as well as economic factors(independent variables) upon the stability of cabinet(dependent variable) under the parliamentary systems. For this purpose, a series of cross-cases quantitative analysis was performed for the cases of the United Kingdom and Japan; OLS multiple regressions and path analysis to detect the causal structures among the operating variables. The analysis shows that (a) parliamentary fractionalization is the sole factor affecting the level of cabinet stability both in the United Kingdom and Japan, and (b) economic variables such as the unemployment rate or the inflation rate do not produce any statistically meaningful impact upon the cabinet stability, neither directly nor indirectly. The theoretical and empirical implications of these findings are as follows: First, the fact that parliamentary fractionalization is the only factor which affects the cabinet stability both in the United Kingdom and Japan suggests a new hypothesis that it may operate as a 'general cause' of the governmental as well as political stability under the parliamentary systems, regardless of regional or cultural diversities. Secondly, the statistically negligible impact of economic factors found in this research, which outrightly defies the empirical findings of previous studies, may generate a new hypothetical perspective that the economic performance of parliamentary government in industrial democracies has been gradually losing its political leverage upon the governmental stability. Finally, the fact that both the United Kingdom and Japan have maintained the stable constitutional monarchy indicates that a specific pattern of parliamentary system may operate as an initial condition under which parliamentary fractionalization produces significant effect upon the cabinet stability.