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UNCERTAINTY IN DAM BREACH FLOOD ROUTING RESULTS FOR DAM SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT

Lee, Jong-Seok   (Department of Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National UniversityCC0123236  );
  • 초록

    Uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results was analyzed in order to provide the basis fer the investigation of their effects on the flood damage assessments and dam safety risk assessments. The Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin Hypercube Sampling technique was used to generate random values for two uncertain input parameters (i.e., dam breach parameters and Manning's n roughness coefficients) of a dam breach flood routing analysis model. The flood routing results without considering the uncertainty in two input parameters were compared with those with considering the uncertainty. This paper showed that dam breach flood routing results heavily depend on the two uncertain input parameters. This study indicated that the flood damage assessments in the downstream areas can be critical if uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results are considered in a reasonable manner.


  • 주제어

    Uncertainty analysis .   Probability risk analysis .   Dam safety risk assessment .   Dam break analysis .   Flood rout-ing analysis .   Monte Carlo simulation .   Latin Hypercube Sampling technique.  

  • 참고문헌 (26)

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