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기상레이더와 지형정보시스템을 이용한 분포형 강우-유출 유역모형의 개발과 검정
Distributed GIS-Based Watershed Rainfall-Runoff Model Development and Its Calibration using Weather Radar

Skahill, Brian E.   최우희   (San Diego State UniversityUU0014054  ); 김민환   (호남대학교 토목환경공학과UU0015948  ); 김성균 ;    (기상청 ;  );
  • 초록

    기상레이더와 지형정보 시스템을 이용한 홍수사상에 기초하고, 운동역학적이며, 초과강우가 고려된 분포형 강우-유출 유역모형이 개발되었다. 이 유역모형에서 강우로 인한 지표면 유출 및 지표면 흐름과 관련된 각종 변수의 공간적 변동성과 불확실성을 인식하고 설명한다. 개발된 모형은 래스터 지형정보시스템과 공간적ㆍ시간적으로 변하는 강우자료와 호환된다. 몬테칼로 모의와 우도값이 이 모형의 검정을 위하여 이용되었으며, 검정 모형으로부터 반응되는 시스템의 가능범위가 허용되었다. 레이더-강우 추정에 대한 보정으로 강우계가 이용되고, 복잡한 토지이용 상태인 미국 덴버시 도시배수홍수조절 구역내에 있는 두 개 유역들(Ralston Creek와 Goldsmith Gulch 유역)의 제한된 기왕 홍수사상에 이 모형이 적용되었다. 제한된 수의 몬테칼로 모의들과 고려된 홍수사상들을 근거로 관측수문곡선과 계산수문곡선을 비교하여, Nash와 Sutcliffe 효율점수의 범위를 얻게 되었으며, 그 범위는 Ralston Creek과 Goldsmith Gulch 유역에 대한 검정모형들로부터 각각 -0.19∼0.95와 -0.75∼0.81이다. 또 한, Ralston Creek과 Goldsmith Gulch 유역의 Nash와 Sutcliffe 효율점수는 유출용적에 대해 각각 0.88과 0.1, 첨두유량에 대해 0.14와 0.71, 첨두유량 도달시간에 대해 0.99와 0.95로 평가되었다.


    An event-based, kinematic, infiltration-excess, and distributed rainfall-runoff model using weather radar and Geographic Information System(GIS) was developed to acknowledge and account lot the spatial variability and uncertainty of several parameters relevant to storm surface runoff and surface flow The developed model is compatible with raster GIS and spatially and temporally varied rainfall data. To calibrate the model, Monte Carlo simulation and a likelihood measure are utilized; allowing for a range of possible system responses from the calibrated model. Using rain gauge adjusted radar-rainfall estimates, the developed model was applied and evaluated to a limited number of historical events for the Ralston Creek and Goldsmith Gulch basins within the Denver Urban Drainage and Flood Control District (UDFCD) that contain mixed land use classifications. While based on a limited number of Monte Carlo simulations and considered flood events, Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency score ranges of -0.19∼0.95 / -0.75∼0.81 were obtained from the calibrated models for the Ralston Creek and Goldsmith Gulch basins, based on a comparison of observed and simulated hydrographs. For the Ralston Creek and Goldsmith Gulch basins, Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency scores of 0.88/0.10, 0.14/0.71, and 0.99/0.95 for runoff volume, peak discharge, and time to peak, respectively, were obtained from the model.


  • 주제어

    강우-유출 .   지형정보시스템 .   몬테칼로 모의 .   지표면 유출 .   레이더-강우 .   수문곡선.  

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  • 이 논문을 인용한 문헌 (3)

    1. Shin, Cheol-Kyun ; Cho, Hyo-Seob ; Jung, Kwan-Sue ; Kim, Jae-Han 2004. "Grid Based Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Using Storage Function Method" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 37(11): 969~978     
    2. Bae Deg-Hyo ; Kim Jin-Hoon ; Yoon Seong-Sim 2005. "Hydrologic Utilization of Radar-Derived Rainfall (I) Optimal Radar Rainfall Estimation" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 38(12): 1039~1049     
    3. Kwon, Hyun-Han ; Moon, Young-Il 2005. "An Analysis of the Rainfall-Runoff of Natural Watershed Using the Hydraulic Routing Method" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 38(7): 555~564     

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