본문 바로가기
HOME> 논문 > 논문 검색상세

논문 상세정보

IMPROVING THE ESP ACCURACY WITH COMBINATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS

Yu, Seung-Oh   (Research Institute of Engineering Science, Seoul National UniversityUU0000691  ); Kim, Young-Oh   (School of Civil, Urban & Geosystem Engineering, Seoul National UniversityUU0000691  );
  • 초록

    Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using forecasts from just a single method to improve forecast accuracy. This paper describes the development and use of a monthly inflow forecast model based on an optimal linear combination (OLC) of forecasts derived from naive, persistence, and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts. Using the cross-validation technique, the OLC model made 1-month ahead probabilistic forecasts for the Chungju multi-purpose dam inflows for 15 years. For most of the verification months, the skill associated with the OLC forecast was superior to those drawn from the individual forecast techniques. Therefore this study demonstrates that OLC can improve the accuracy of the ESP forecast, especially during the dry season. This study also examined the value of the OLC forecasts in reservoir operations. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) derived the optimal operating policy for the Chungju multi-purpose dam operation and the derived policy was simulated using the 15-year observed inflows. The simulation results showed the SDP model that updated its probability from the new OLC forecast provided more efficient operation decisions than the conventional SDP model.


  • 주제어

    ensemble streamflow prediction .   optimal linear combination .   stochastic dynamic programming.  

  • 참고문헌 (14)

    1. Tejada-Guilbert, J. A., Johnson, S. A., and Stedinger, J. R. (1993). 'Comparison of two approaches for implementing multireservoir operating policies derived using stochastic dynamic programming.' Water Resour. Res., 29(12), 3969-3980 
    2. Stedinger, J. R., and Kim, Y.-O. (2002). 'Updating ensemble probabilities based on climate forecasts.' Conf. on Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., ASCE, Roanoke, VA, Session C2(CD-ROM) 
    3. Stedinger, J. R., Sule, B. R, and Loucks, D. R (1984). ' Stochastic dynamic programming models for reservoir operation optimization.' Water Resour. Res., 20(11), 1499-1505 
    4. Pegram, G., Stedinger, J., Payne, K., and Born, P. (1991). 'Statistical analysis program for SDP optimization.' Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 1-27 (unpublished manuscript) 
    5. Piechota, T. C, Chiew, F. H. S., Dracup, J. A., and McMahon, T. A. (1998). 'Seasonal streamflow forecasting in eastern Australia and the EI Nino-Southern Oscillation.' Water Resour. Res., 34(11), 3035-3044 
    6. Kim, Y.-O., and Palmer, R. N. (1997). 'Value of seasonal forecasts in bayesian stochastic programming.' J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., 123(6), 327-335 
    7. Klemes, V. (1977). 'Discrete representation of storage for stochastic reservoir optimization.' Water Resour. Res., 13(1), 149-158 
    8. McLeod, A. I., Noakes, D. J., Hipel, K. W., and Thompstone, R. M. (1987). 'Combining hy-drologic forecasts.' J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt., 113(1), 29-41 
    9. Jeong, D. I., and Kim, Y.-O. (2002). 'Forecasting monthly inflow to Chungju dam using ensemble streamflow prediction.' J. Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 22(3-B), 321-331 (in Korean) 
    10. Kim, Y.-O., Jeong, D. I., and Kim, H. S. (2001). 'Improving water supply outlook in Korea with ensemble streamflow prediction.' Water International, 26(4), 563-568 
    11. Kim, Y.-O., Jeong, D.I., and Ko, I. H. (2003). 'Combining rainfall-runoff models for improving ensemble streamflow prediction.' J. Hydro. (submitted) 
    12. Casey, T. (1995). 'Optimal linear combination of seasonal forecasts.' Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 44, 219-224 
    13. Faber, B. A., and Stedinger, J. R. (2001). 'Reservoir optimization using sampling SDP with ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasts.' J. Hydro., 249(1-4), 113-133 
    14. Brier, G. W., and Allen, R. A. (1951). 'Compendium of meteorology.' Am. Meteorol. Soc, 841-848 

 저자의 다른 논문

  • 김영오 (45)

    1. 2000 "Korean Streamflow Patterns In Relation To EI NiNO/Southern Oscillation" Water engineering research : international journal of KWRA 1 (2): 107~117    
    2. 2000 "저수지 운영에서의 엘니뇨/라니냐 정보의 효용성 고찰" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 33 (1): 483~488    
    3. 2000 "선진국의 기후변화 연구동향(I)-유출에 대한 영향을 중심으로-" 물과 미래 : 한국수자원학회지 = Water for future 33 (3): 22~31    
    4. 2000 "선진국의 기후변화 연구동향(II) -수자원관리에 대한 영향을 중심으로-" 물과 미래 : 한국수자원학회지 = Water for future 33 (3): 32~41    
    5. 2000 "SENSITIVITY OF THE KEUM RIVER BASIN TO CLIMATE CHANGE" Water engineering research : international journal of KWRA 1 (4): 267~277    
    6. 2000 "ENSO 정보를 이용한 저수지 운영울의 산출" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 33 (5): 593~601    
    7. 2002 "용수공급을 고려한 홍수기 저수지 운영방안" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 35 (6): 639~650    
    8. 2005 "WEP 모형을 이용한 도림천 유역 물순환 모의" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 38 (6): 449~460    
    9. 2005 "최적선형보정을 이용한 앙상블 유량예측 시스템의 개선" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 38 (6): 471~483    
    10. 2005 "국내 다목적댐 운영계획에 적합한 목적함수에 관한 연구" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 38 (9): 737~746    

 활용도 분석

  • 상세보기

    amChart 영역
  • 원문보기

    amChart 영역

원문보기

무료다운로드
  • NDSL :
유료다운로드
  • 원문이 없습니다.

유료 다운로드의 경우 해당 사이트의 정책에 따라 신규 회원가입, 로그인, 유료 구매 등이 필요할 수 있습니다. 해당 사이트에서 발생하는 귀하의 모든 정보활동은 NDSL의 서비스 정책과 무관합니다.

원문복사신청을 하시면, 일부 해외 인쇄학술지의 경우 외국학술지지원센터(FRIC)에서
무료 원문복사 서비스를 제공합니다.

NDSL에서는 해당 원문을 복사서비스하고 있습니다. 위의 원문복사신청 또는 장바구니 담기를 통하여 원문복사서비스 이용이 가능합니다.

이 논문과 함께 출판된 논문 + 더보기