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The plant pathology journal v.21 no.2, 2005년, pp.111 - 118   피인용횟수: 1

Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using Supercomputer

Kim, Kyu-Rang   (Department of Plant Pathology, Cornell University, NYSAESUU0015071  ); Seem, Robert C.   (Department of Plant Pathology, Cornell University, NYSAESUU0015071  ); Park, Eun-Woo   (School of Agricultural Biotechnology, Seoul National UniversityUU0000691  ); Zack, John W.   (MESO Inc.  ); Magarey, Roger D.   (USDA/APHIS/CPHST  );
  • 초록

    Weather data for disease forecasts are usually derived from automated weather stations (AWS) that may be dispersed across a region in an irregular pattern. We have developed an alternative method to simulate local scale, high-resolution weather and plant disease in a grid pattern. The system incorporates a simplified mesoscale boundary layer model, LAWSS, for estimating local conditions such as air temperature and relative humidity. It also integrates special models for estimating of surface wetness duration and disease forecasts, such as the grapevine downy mildew forecast model, DMCast. The system can recreate weather forecasts utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database, which contains over 57 years of archived and corrected global upper air conditions. The highest horizontal resolution of 0.150 km was achieved by running 5-step nested child grids inside coarse mother grids. Over the Finger Lakes and Chautauqua Lake regions of New York State, the system simulated three growing seasons for estimating the risk of grape downy mildew with 1 km resolution. Outputs were represented as regional maps or as site-specific graphs. The highest resolutions were achieved over North America, but the system is functional for any global location. The system is expected to be a powerful tool for site selection and reanalysis of historical plant disease epidemics.


  • 주제어

    disease model .   farecast .   high-resolution .   mesoscale .   simulation .   supercomputer .   weather.  

  • 참고문헌 (16)

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    8. Park, E. W, Seem, R. C. Gadoury, D. M. and Pearson, R. C. 1997. DMCAST: a prediction model for grape downy mildew development. Vitic. Enol. Sci. 52:182-189 
    9. Manobianco, J., Zack, J. W. and Taylor, G. E. 1996. Workstationbased real-time mesoscale modeling designed for weather support to operations at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77:653-672 
    10. Magarey, R. D., Russo, J. M., Seem, R. C. and Gadoury, D. M. 2005. Surface wetness duration under controlled environmental conditions. Agric. For. Metrol. 128:111-122 
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    13. Anonymous. 1991. Land-Use and Land-Cover Digital Data from 1 :250,000- and 1: 100,000-Scale Maps Factsheet. Data Users Guide 4. 33pp. United States Geological Survey, Reston, VA 
    14. Magarey, R. D., 1999. A theoretical standard for the estimation of surface wetness duration in grape. Ph.D. thesis, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 
    15. Magarey, R. D., Seem, R. C. and Zack, J. W. 2000. A Local-area Agricultural Weather Simulation System (LAWSS), for environmental risk assessment. GIS/EM 4:47 
    16. Magarey, R. D., Seem, R. C., Russo, J. M., Zack, J. W., Waight, K. T., Travis, J. W. and Oudemans, P. V. 2001. Site-specific weather information without on-site sensors. Plant Dis. 85:1216-1226 
  • 이 논문을 인용한 문헌 (1)

    1. 2010. "" The plant pathology journal, 26(1): 37~48     

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