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Assessment of Future Climate Change Impact on DAM Inflow using SLURP Hydrologic Model and CA-Markov Technique

Kim, Seong-Joon   (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk UniversityUU0000050  ); Lim, Hyuk-Jin   (Dept. of Rural Engineering, Konkuk UniversityUU0000050  ); Park, Geun-Ae   (Dept. of Rural Engineering, Konkuk UniversityUU0000050  ); Park, Min-Ji   (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk UniversityUU0000050  ); Kwon, Hyung-Joong   (Dept. of Rural Engineering, Konkuk UniversityUU0000050  );
  • 초록

    To investigate the hydrologic impacts of climate changes on dam inflow for Soyanggangdam watershed $(2694.4km^2)$ of northeastern South Korea, SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Process) model and the climate change results of CCCma CGCM2 based on SRES A2 and B2 were adopted. By the CA-Markov technique, future land use changes were estimated using the three land cover maps (1985, 1990, 2000) classified by Landsat TM satellite images. NDVI values for 2050 and 2100 land uses were estimated from the relationship of NDVI-Temperature linear regression derived from the observed data (1998-2002). Before the assessment, the SLURP model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1998-2001) dam inflow data with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.61 to 0.77. In case of A2 scenario, the dam inflows of 2050 and 2100 decreased 49.7 % and 25.0 % comparing with the dam inflow of 2000, and in case of B2 scenario, the dam inflows of 2050 and 2100 decreased 45.3 % and 53.0 %, respectively. The results showed that the impact of land use change covered 2.3 % to 4.9 % for the dam inflow change.


  • 주제어

    SLURP .   Climate change .   CA-Markov technique .   NDVI.  

  • 참고문헌 (12)

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    8. IPCC, 1996. Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York. 
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