Evaluation of Future Climate Change Impact on Streamflow of Gyeongancheon Watershed Using SLURP Hydrological Model
The impact on streamflow and groundwater recharge considering future potential climate and land use change was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1999-2002) daily observed streamflow data for a $260.4km^2$ which has been continuously urbanized during the past couple of decades. The model was calibrated and validated with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.8 to 0.7 and 0.7 to 0.5, respectively. The CCCma CGCM2 data by two SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) of the IPCC (Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the future weather data was downscaled by Delta Change Method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. The future land uses were predicted by CA (Cellular Automata)-Markov technique using the time series land use data of Landsat images. The future land uses showed that the forest and paddy area decreased 10.8 % and 6.2 % respectively while the urban area increased 14.2 %. For the future vegetation cover information, a linear regression between monthly NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from NOAA/AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature using five years (1998 - 2002) data was derived for each land use class. The future highest NDVI value was 0.61 while the current highest NDVI value was 0.52. The model results showed that the future predicted runoff ratio ranged from 46 % to 48 % while the present runoff ratio was 59 %. On the other hand, the impact on runoff ratio by land use change showed about 3 % increase comparing with the present land use condition. The streamflow and groundwater recharge was big decrease in the future.
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이 논문을 인용한 문헌 (1)
- Ahn, So-Ra ; Park, Min-Ji ; Park, Geun-Ae ; Kim, Seong-Joon 2009. "Assessing Future Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Components of Gyeongancheon Watershed" 韓國水資源學會論文集 = Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 42(1): 33~50
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