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Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain Considering Seasonal Demand

조동원    (한양대학교 산업경영공학과   ); 이영해    (한양대학교 산업경영공학과  );
  • 초록

    The bullwhip effect refers to the phenomenon where demand variability is amplified when one moves upward a supply chain. In this paper, we exactly quantify the bullwhip effect for cases of seasonal demand processes in a two-echelon supply chain with a single retailer and a single supplier. In most of the previous research, some measures of performance for the bullwhip effect are developed for cases of non-seasonal demand processes. The retailer performs demand forecast with a multiplicative seasonal mixed model by using the minimum mean square error forecasting technique and employs a base stock policy. With the developed bullwhip effect measure, we investigate the impact of seasonal factor on the bullwhip effect. Then, we prove that seasonal factor plays an important role on the occurrence of the bullwhip effect.


  • 주제어

    Supply chain management .   Bullwhip effect .   Multiplicative seasonal mixed model.  

  • 참고문헌 (21)

    1. Duc, T. T. H., Luong, H. T., and Kim, Y. D. (2008), A Measure of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with a Mixed Autoregressive-moving Average Demand Process, European Journal of Operational Research, 187(1), 243-256 
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    4. Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V., and Whang, S. G. (1997b), Information Distortion in a Supply Chain : The Bullwhip Effect, Management Science, 43(4), 546-558 
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    8. Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K., and Simchi-Levi, D. (2000a), Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain : The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information, Management Science, 46(3), 436-443 
    9. Chopra, S. and Meindl, P. (2007), Supply Chain Management : Strategy, Planning and Operations, Pearson International Edition, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 
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    13. Luong, H. T. and Phien, N. H. (2007), Measure of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains : The Case of High Order Autoregressive Demand Process, European Journal of Operational Research, 183(1), 197-209 
    14. Nahamis, S. (1997), Production and Operations Analysis, 3rd ed., Irwin McGraw-Hill, New York 
    15. Zhang, X. (2004), The Impact of Forecasting Methods on the Bullwhip Effect, International Journal of Production Economics, 88(1), 15-27 
    16. Forrester, J. W. (1969), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge 
    17. Gilbert, K. C. (2005), An ARIMA Supply Chain Model, Management Science, 51(2), 305-310 
    18. Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K., and Simchi-Levi, D. (2000b), The Impact of Exponential Smoothing Forecasts on the Bullwhip Effect, Naval Research Logistics, 47(4), 269-286 
    19. Kelle, P. and Milne, A. (1999), The Effect of (s, S) Ordering Policy on the Supply Chain, International Journal of Production Economics, 59(1-3), 113-122 
    20. Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V., and Whang, S. G. (1997a), The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain, Sloan Management Review, 38(3), 93-102 
    21. Gilbert, K. C. and Chatpattananan, V. (2006), An ARIMA Supply Chain Model with a Generalized Ordering Policy, Journal of Modeling in Management, 1(1), 33-51 
  • 이 논문을 인용한 문헌 (1)

    1. Cho, Dong-Won ; Lee, Young-Hae 2009. "Developing the Bullwhip Effect Measure in a Supply Chain Considering Seasonal Demand and Stochastic Lead Time" 한국경영과학회지 = Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society, 34(4): 91~112     

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