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經營 科學 = Korean management science review v.29 no.1, 2012년, pp.101 - 114   피인용횟수: 2

수요 특성이 계층적 수요예측법의 퍼포먼스에 미치는 영향 : 해군 수리부속 사례 연구
The Impact of Demand Features on the Performance of Hierarchical Forecasting : Case Study for Spare parts in the Navy

문성민    (해군사관학교 국방경영학과  );
  • 초록

    The demand for naval spare parts is intermittent and erratic. This feature, referred to as non-normal demand, makes forecasting difficult. Hierarchical forecasting using an aggregated time series can be more reliable to predict non-normal demand than direct forecasting. In practice the performance of hierarchical forecasting is not always superior to direct forecasting. The relative performance of the alternative forecasting methods depends on the demand features. This paper analyses the influence of the demand features on the performance of the alternative forecasting methods that use hierarchical and direct forecasting. Among various demand features variability, kurtosis, skewness and equipment groups are shown to significantly influence on the performance of the alternative forecasting methods.


  • 주제어

    Spare Parts Demand .   Non-Normal Demand .   Hierarchical Forecasting .   Demand Features.  

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  • 이 논문을 인용한 문헌 (2)

    1. Yoon, Jae-Hong 2013. "The Effects of Correct Implementation of Six Sigma Practices on Customer Focus Performance, Quality Performance and Business Performance" 經營 科學 = Korean management science review, 30(1): 59~72     
    2. 2013. "" Management science and financial engineering : MSFE, 19(1): 1~10     

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