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Sustainable cities and society v.29, 2017년, pp.193 - 202   SCIE
본 등재정보는 저널의 등재정보를 참고하여 보여주는 베타서비스로 정확한 논문의 등재여부는 등재기관에 확인하시기 바랍니다.

Scenario analysis of sustainable intensive land use based on SD model

Geng, Bing (School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences in Beijing, No. 29, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China ) ; Zheng, Xinqi (School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences in Beijing, No. 29, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China ) ; Fu, Meichen (School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences in Beijing, No. 29, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China ) ;
  • 초록  

    Abstract The intensive and sustainable way of land use is one of the most important approaches to solve the issue of contradiction between human activities and land resource. In this paper, the system dynamics (SD) method was used to construct the sustainable intensive land use model. This model simulated the land use status of Beijing and analyzed variation of intensity under the different scenarios. The sustainable intensive land use model includes population sub-model, economy sub-model, land use sub-model and intensity sub-model. The model contains 8 variables of stocks, 135 variables, 29 constants and 173 mathematical equations. Through the causal relationship linking four sub-models, eventually build into a multivariate nonlinear intensive land use model. The results show that: (1) Variation of intensive degree follows the law of diminishing returns. The intensity will reach the optimal state in 2020–2050 under the current situation of Beijing social development. (2) Through analysis of intensity change at present, it has been found that the ideal population of Beijing should be around 28.77million and no more than 4144km 2 of constructive land use area is suitable for sustainable development under the present social development state. (3) The cycle time of intensity variation is around 20–30 years. Intensity can achieve continuous increase by the way of integrated adjustment of population, economy and land use on these periodic nodes. Sustainable intensive utilization of land can be achieved. (4) The model has passed validation test and its relation error controlled within ±5%. This research could provide scientific basis for further land supply and support government policy decisions.


  • 주제어

    Intensive land use .   SD model .   Diminishing returns .   Sustainable.  

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