본문 바로가기
HOME> 논문 > 논문 검색상세

논문 상세정보

Water resources research v.52 no.9, 2016년, pp.6928 - 6947   SCI SCIE
본 등재정보는 저널의 등재정보를 참고하여 보여주는 베타서비스로 정확한 논문의 등재여부는 등재기관에 확인하시기 바랍니다.

A coupled human‐natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate

Giuliani, M. (Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy ) ; Li, Y. (Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy ) ; Castelletti, A. (Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences‐Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, Università ) ; Gandolfi, C. (Degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy ) ;
  • 초록  

    Abstract Exponentially growing water demands and increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes due to changes in climate and land use are challenging the sustainability of agricultural water systems. Farmers must adapt their management strategies in order to secure food production and avoid crop failures. Investigating the potential for adaptation policies in agricultural systems requires accounting for their natural and human components, along with their reciprocal interactions. Yet this feedback is generally overlooked in the water resources systems literature. In this work, we contribute a novel modeling approach to study the coevolution of irrigated agriculture under changing climate, advancing the representation of the human component within agricultural systems by using normative meta‐models to describe the behaviors of groups of farmers or institutional decisions. These behavioral models, validated against observational data, are then integrated into a coupled human‐natural system simulation model to better represent both systems and their coevolution under future changing climate conditions, assuming the adoption of different policy adaptation options, such as cultivating less water demanding crops. The application to the pilot study of the Adda River basin in northern Italy shows that the dynamic coadaptation of water supply and demand allows farmers to avoid estimated potential losses of more than 10 M€/yr under projected climate changes, while unilateral adaptation of either the water supply or the demand are both demonstrated to be less effective. Results also show that the impact of the different policy options varies as function of drought intensity, with water demand adaptation outperforming water supply adaptation when drought conditions become more severe.


    Key Points: We analyze the future coevolution of an irrigated agricultural district under climate change We advance the representation of human behaviors to better describe feedbacks between natural and human components of CHNS We study how the coadaptation of water supply and demand removes policy inertia


  • 주제어

    coupled human‐natural systems .   climate change .   water management.  

 활용도 분석

  • 상세보기

    amChart 영역
  • 원문보기

    amChart 영역

원문보기

무료다운로드
  • 원문이 없습니다.
유료다운로드

유료 다운로드의 경우 해당 사이트의 정책에 따라 신규 회원가입, 로그인, 유료 구매 등이 필요할 수 있습니다. 해당 사이트에서 발생하는 귀하의 모든 정보활동은 NDSL의 서비스 정책과 무관합니다.

원문복사신청을 하시면, 일부 해외 인쇄학술지의 경우 외국학술지지원센터(FRIC)에서
무료 원문복사 서비스를 제공합니다.

NDSL에서는 해당 원문을 복사서비스하고 있습니다. 위의 원문복사신청 또는 장바구니 담기를 통하여 원문복사서비스 이용이 가능합니다.

이 논문과 함께 출판된 논문 + 더보기