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Scientific reports v.6, 2016년, pp.37548 -    SCI SCIE
본 등재정보는 저널의 등재정보를 참고하여 보여주는 베타서비스로 정확한 논문의 등재여부는 등재기관에 확인하시기 바랍니다.

Narrowing the spread in CMIP5 model projections of air-sea CO2 fluxes

Wang, Lei (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, and Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China ) ; Huang, Jianbin (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, and Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China ) ; Luo, Yong (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, and Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China ) ; Zhao, Zongci (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, and Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China ) ;
  • 초록  

    Large spread appears in the projection of air-sea CO 2 fluxes using the latest simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Here, two methods are applied to narrow this spread in 13 CMIP5 models. One method involves model selection based on the ability of models to reproduce the observed air-sea CO 2 fluxes from 1980 to 2005. The other method involves constrained estimation based on the strong relationship between the historical and future air-sea CO 2 fluxes. The estimated spread of the projected air-sea CO 2 fluxes is effectively reduced by using these two approaches. These two approaches also show great agreement in the global ocean and three regional oceans of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean, including the average state and evolution characteristics. Based on the projections of the two approaches, the global ocean carbon uptake will increase in the first half of the 21 st century then remain relatively stable and is projected to be 3.68–4.57 PgC/yr at the end of 21 st century. The projections indicate that the increase in the CO 2 uptake by the oceans will cease at the year of approximately 2070.


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