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Environment international v.110, 2018년, pp.123 - 130   SCIE
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Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes: A multi-country study

Lee, Whanhee (Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea ) ; Bell, Michelle L. (School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA ) ; Gasparrini, Antonio (Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom ) ; Armstrong, Ben G. (Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom ) ; Sera, Francesco (Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom ) ; Hwang, Sunghee (Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea ) ; Lavigne, Eric (School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada ) ; Zanobetti, Antonella (Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA ) ; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio (Laboratory of Experimental Air Pollution, Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil ) ; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento (Laboratory of Experime ) ; Osorio, Samuel ; Tobias, Aurelio ; Zeka, Ariana ; Goodman, Patrick G. ; Forsberg, Bertil ; Rocklöv, Joacim ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Honda, Yasushi ; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon ; Seposo, Xerxes ; Van Dung, Do ; Dang, Tran Ngoc ; Tong, Shilu ; Guo, Yuming ; Kim, Ho ;
  • 초록  

    Abstract Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3–2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1–2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4–2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health. Highlights We analyzed the health burden of diurnal temperature range (DTR) for 10 countries. In addition, we estimated the temporal changes in the mortality burden of DTR. The excessive risk and attributable risk of DTR was significant in most countries. The mortality burden due to DTR has been increased during decades (1972–2013). We conclude that the effect of DTR will not decrease in the near future.


  • 주제어

    Diurnal temperature range .   Attributable mortality risk fraction .   Time-varying effect .   Climate change.  

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