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Coastal engineering v.130, 2017년, pp.14 - 25   SCI SCIE
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Annual prediction of shoreline erosion and subsequent recovery

Davidson, Mark A. (Coastal Processes Research Group, Plymouth University, UK ) ; Turner, Ian L. (Water Research Laboratory, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW, Sydney, Australia ) ; Splinter, Kristen D. (Water Research Laboratory, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW, Sydney, Australia ) ; Harley, Mitchel D. (Water Research Laboratory, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW, Sydney, Australia ) ;
  • 초록  

    Abstract Prediction of the potential impact of an extreme storm-sequence on coastal resilience and the subsequent rate of post-storm recovery is a fundamental goal for coastal scientists, engineers and managers alike. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting shoreline change over annual time-scales, including the prediction of the potential impact of storm sequences and the subsequent post-storm recovery. The methodology utilises an archive of measured or modelled wave data to produce multiple (≈10 3 ) synthetic hydrodynamic forcing time-series to drive an equilibrium shoreline model in a Monte Carlo simulation. A Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) analysis is conducted on the resulting shoreline predictions in order to extrapolate the magnitude of shoreline displacements for predefined return periods. Three shoreline displacement bands are defined in a ‘traffic light’ system, to aid the interpretation of results; a green (normal) band characterising shoreline displacements expected within the typical decade, an amber (high) band defining events with return periods outside the decadal recurrence threshold but within return periods Highlights This contribution provides a climatological, probabilistic methodology for forecasting shoreline change on an annual time-scale. The methodology is also capable of forecasting the limits of shoreline erosion due to extreme storms or storm sequences. The methodology is skilful at forecasting shoreline recovery following beach erosion events. The forecasts characterise shoreline displacements with a simple traffic light system, where: normal = green (return period 100 years).


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