Predictors of death in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy patients with pacemaker
Abstract Background Chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is the most serious and frequent manifestation of Chagas disease. Conduction abnormalities and bradycardia requiring pacemaker are common. The aim of this study was to determine the rate and predictors of death in CCC patients with pacemaker. Methods In this single-center prospective cohort study we assessed the outcome of 396 CCC patients with pacemaker, followed-up for at least 24months. All patients underwent a clinical and device assessment, 12-lead electrocardiography and echocardiography. Results During the median follow-up of 1.9years (Interquartile range 1.6–2.4), there were 65 (16.4%) deaths, yielding an annual mortality rate of 8.6%. The major cause was sudden death (33.8%), followed by heart failure (HF), 32.3%. All the investigated variables were examined as potential predictors of death. The final multivariate logistic regression model included five independent variables: advanced HF functional class (OR [odds ratio] 6.71; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.95–23.2; P = 0.003), renal disease (OR 5.71; 95% CI 1.80–18.0; P = 0.003), QRS ≥150ms (OR 2.80; 95% CI 1.08–7.27; P = 0.034), left atrial enlargement (OR 2.75; 95% CI 1.09–6.95; P = 0.032) and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤43% (OR 2.31; 95% CI 1.07–4.97; P = 0.032). The model had good discrimination, confirmed by bootstrap validation (optimism-adjusted c-statistic of 0.78) and the calibration curve showed a proper calibration (slope=0.972). Conclusions CCC patients with pacemaker have a high annual mortality rate despite that the pacemaker related variables were not predictors of death. The independent predictors of death can help us to identify the poor prognosis patients.
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