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International journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society v.38 no.6, 2018년, pp.2889 - 2898   SCI SCIE
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Statistical prediction of non‐Gaussian climate extremes in urban areas based on the first‐order difference method

Qian, Cheng (Key Laboratory of Regional Climate‐Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China ) ; Zhou, Wen (Guy Carpenter Asia‐Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong ) ; Yang, Xiu‐Qun (CMA‐NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China ) ; Chan, Johnny C. L. (Guy Carpenter Asia‐Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong ) ;
  • 초록  

    Prediction of climate extremes is challenging, especially for non‐Gaussian extremes in urban areas where the majority of people live, since the Gaussian assumption used in linear regression is violated and the urbanization effect needs to be considered. In this study, the first‐order difference method is introduced to take these difficulties into account. Statistical prediction of the non‐Gaussian annual occurrence of hot days in downtown Hong Kong, which is highly urbanized, is used to illustrate this method. With the help of the first‐order difference of the annual occurrences, which follows a Gaussian distribution, the difference series is used as the predictant to find predictors and to construct a prediction model by using traditional linear regression. The difference is first predicted and is then added to the observed value at the preceding time to obtain the predicted annual occurrence. The historical urbanization effect is thus obtained directly from the observations at the preceding time. The prediction results are found desirable. The broad application potential and conditions in which this method should be used are also discussed.


  • 주제어

    climate extremes .   first‐order difference .   non‐Gaussian .   seasonal prediction .   urbanization effect.  

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