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주택용 전력수요의 계절별 가격탄력성 추정을 통한 누진요금제 효과 검증 연구

  • 과제명

    주택용 전력수요의 계절별 가격탄력성 추정을 통한 누진요금제 효과 검증 연구

  • 주관연구기관

    에너지경제연구원
    Korea Energy Economics Institute

  • 연구책임자

    조성진

  • 참여연구자

    오상봉   윤태연   박광수  

  • 보고서유형

    최종보고서

  • 발행국가

    대한민국

  • 발행년월

    2015-12

  • 과제시작년도

    2015

  • 주관부처

    산업통상자원부

  • 사업 관리 기관

    에너지경제연구원
    Korea Energy Economics Institute

  • 등록번호

    TRKO201600001654

  • 과제고유번호

    1105010661

  • DB 구축일자

    2016-06-04

  • 초록 


    2. Results and Policy Suggestions

    This study uses ‘Household Income and Expenditure Survey’ released by the Statistics Kor...

    2. Results and Policy Suggestions

    This study uses ‘Household Income and Expenditure Survey’ released by the Statistics Korea to identify the patterns of residential electricity demand with seasonal variations. Household Income and Expenditure Survey is a monthly survey on the breakdown of income and expenditure over all households nationwide, thus it has the advantage of being utilized for seasonal analysis.
    Since the electricity expense is only shown in the survey, this study estimated the monthly electricity consumption of the households since 2010 drawn from the survey by using the previous electricity rates table.
    This study set the electricity demand function employing electricity consumption per household as dependent variable, and various types of variables including household income and electricity price as explanatory variables in order to analyze the pattern of electricity consumption. As increasing block tariffs is applied for residential electricity, there has been controversy as to whether the price of the last unit consumed(marginal price) or the price defined by the total expenditure divided by the usage(average price) is used as price variable. This study exploited both marginal price and average price. The Least Square Method(LSM) estimation results showed that the price elasticities are positive regardless of whether either marginal price or average price is used as price variable. One of the factors which concluded the results inconsistent with the economic theory is related to endogeneity problem between electricity consumption and electricity price. Given the characteristics of increasing block rates, both average price and marginal price are positively correlated with electricity consumption. Since electricity consumption increases, the higher cost per unit of electricity is charged. To address the endogeneity problem, this study re-estimated the price elasticities by using 2SLS method. The estimation results indicated that in case of liquefied natural gas(LNG) prices employed as instrumental variable, the price elasticity is positive. However, the estimations using System Marginal Price(SMP), coal, LNG price provided as instrumental variables have negative price elasticities. In case of estimating elasticities by coordinating discrepancy between electricity consumption and other explanatory variables, the results are positive even if the instrumental variable is used, which is not in accordance with the economic theory.
    Assuming that electricity consumption patterns have seasonal variations given seasonality and increasing block rate, this study re-estimated monthly price elasticities. There clearly exists a seasonality in electricity consumption since the estimation results based on the previous integrated data have the underlying assumption that the pattern of electricity consumption is the same regardless of season. Another reason is the assumption that if increasing block rate is efficient to electricity saving, consumers are more likely to respond to electricity prices during seasons with high electricity consumption. According to estimation results of monthly electricity demand function, the price elasticities are generally positive while some cases are negative, failing to obtain consistent results.
    The fact that the estimation of price elasticity is neither in accordance with the economic theory nor has significant results implies that increasing block rate has little effect on reducing electricity usage. Nevertheless, it is difficult to deny that many households refrain from using Household electric appliances such as air conditioner during the summer months to avoid burden of increasing block rates. This study estimated the electricity consumption function for cooling based on defining electricity consumption for cooling as subtracting electricity consumption in no-cooling demand season from electricity consumption in summer when cooling demand occurs. The estimation results indicated that the price elasticities are negative. This study estimated the electricity demand function for air-conditioning by categorizing households by household income level(five income brackets). The estimation results presented that the price elasticities are negative ranging from the first to fourth groups, while the household from the fifth group has a positive elasticity, which is not statistically significant. Also, the estimation showed that thee price elasticity for the first group is - 0.601, which is particularly large. That is, low income households respond more sensitively to price. In case of low-income households, high ratio of electricity consumption to income is analyzed as one of the reasons for this result. In case of households in the bottom 20 percent income bracket, the ratio of electricity consumption to their summer-season income is as high as more than 7%. By contrast, in case of households in the top 20 percent income bracket, the ratio is less than one percent, suggesting that low income households are more price sensitive than high-income households.
    As a result of estimating various electricity demands functions, increasing blocking rate appears not to achieve its goal of energy efficiency, along with needs for reform for improvement. The principle of increasing block rate is valid, as high consumption households cause higher power supply costs.
    The problem is that 11.7 times of progressive rate difference in 6 tires in the Korean electricity tariff is too heavy in light of supply price per unit. In overseas cases, some countries applying residential electricity tariff have three-tier progressive rate structure within the maximum difference between the tiers to twice. Therefore, Korean residential electricity tariff system needs to be mitigated. The number of tires should be reduced below 3 and progressive rate difference should be significantly diminished. If the progressive rate difference is diminished, increase of electric rate far below current generation cost is inevitable, which might be burden for some low income households. Accordingly, it is necessary to take supplementing measures to alleviate the price burden on these households along with price coordination.
    This study is differentiated from the previous studies due to the fact that it estimated the patterns of electricity demand with seasonal variations, taking the seasonality in electricity consumption into account. Note, however, that estimation results inconsistent with economic theory are obtained from the experiment and with respect to the adequacy of instrumental variables for estimate, a thorough investigation will be necessary. In addition, employing block price, not marginal price in the estimation of electricity demand for cooling needs improvement. Unlike the main source for air-conditioning, other energy sources except electricity exist for heating including city gas, oil, thermal energy, etc. It can be a problem that analysis of household electricity demand for heating was not conducted in this study. Analyses on equity or changes in welfare resulting from the residential electricity rate system reform, though beyond the scope of this study, have not been tried. To overcome these limitations and weaknesses, it is necessary to improve the approaches and estimation methodologies exploited in the previous studies and required to conduct studies estimating the price elasticities of the electricity demand by linking real-time electricity consumption data.


    3. 결론 및 시사점
    본 연구에서 다양한 전력 수요함수를 추정한 결과 주택용 누진요금제는 도입 목적을 제대로 달성하지 못하고 있는 것으로 보여 개선될 필요가 있는 것으로 판단된다. 소비량이 많은 가구가 보다 높은 공급비용을 초...

    3. 결론 및 시사점
    본 연구에서 다양한 전력 수요함수를 추정한 결과 주택용 누진요금제는 도입 목적을 제대로 달성하지 못하고 있는 것으로 보여 개선될 필요가 있는 것으로 판단된다. 소비량이 많은 가구가 보다 높은 공급비용을 초래하므로 누진요금이 잘못된 제도는 아니다. 다만 현재 국내에서 시행되고 있는 6단계에 11.7배의 누진배율은 공급원가에 비추어 매우 과도하다. 해외 사례를 보면 일부 국가에서 주택용에 누진요금을 적용하고 있지만 대부분 누진단계는 3단계 내외이고, 누진배율도 2배 이내이다. 우리나라도 주택용 누진요금은 크게 완화할 필요가 있다. 누진단계는 3단계 이하로 축소하고 누진배율도 크게 줄여야 할 것이다. 다만 누진배율을 축소하는 경우 현재 원가보다 크게 낮은 단계의 요금이 상승이 불가피하고 이는 일부 저소득가구의 부담으로 작용될 가능성도 존재한다. 따라서 요금 조정과 함께 이러한 가구에 대한 비용부담을 경감하는 보완책 등이 필요하다.
    본 연구는 전력 소비의 계절성을 고려하여 계절별 전력 수요 행태를 추정하였다는 점에서 기존 연구와 차별성이 있다. 다만 경제이론에 부합하지 않은 추정 결과가 도출되 었고 또한 추정에 이용한 도구변수의 적합성 여부도 더욱 신중한 검토가 필요한 것으로 보인다. 그리고 냉방용 전력 수요 추정에서 한계 가격이 아닌 구간 가격을 이용한 것도 개선이 필요한 부분이다. 냉방용과는 달리 난방용으로는 전력 외에 도시가스, 석유, 열에너지 등 다양한 에너지원이 존재하여 별도의 연구가 필요한 분야이지만 난방용 전력 수요에 대해서 분석하지 않은 점도 지적될 수 있다. 본 연구의 범위를 넘어서는 부분이지만 주택용 전기요금 개편에 따른 형평성이나 후생의 변화와 관련된 분석도 시도되지 않았다. 이러한 한계점과 미비점을 극복하기 위해서는 기존 연구에서 이용한 접근방식 및 추정방법론에 대한 개선 노력이 필요하며, 실시간 전력 소비 자료 등과 연계하여 전력 수요의 가격 탄력성을 추정하는 연구도 수행할 필요가 있다.


  • 목차(Contents) 

    1. 표지 ... 1
    2. 참여연구진 ... 5
    3. 요약 ... 7
    4. ABSTRACT ... 13
    5. 목차 ... 21
    6. 표목차 ... 23
    7. 그림목차 ... 27
    8. 제1장 서 론 ... 29
    9. 제2장 전기요금 체계 개관 ... 33
    10. 제1절 전기요금제도 ...
    1. 표지 ... 1
    2. 참여연구진 ... 5
    3. 요약 ... 7
    4. ABSTRACT ... 13
    5. 목차 ... 21
    6. 표목차 ... 23
    7. 그림목차 ... 27
    8. 제1장 서 론 ... 29
    9. 제2장 전기요금 체계 개관 ... 33
    10. 제1절 전기요금제도 현황 및 문제점 ... 33
    11. 1. 전기요금제도 현황 ... 33
    12. 2. 전기요금제도 문제점 ... 35
    13. 제2절 주택용 전기요금제도 개관 ... 38
    14. 1. 과거 주택용 전기요금제도 변화 추이 ... 38
    15. 2. 최근 주택용 전기요금제도 현황 ... 43
    16. 제3절 주택용 전기요금 개정 추이 분석 ... 49
    17. 제4절 주택용 전기요금제도 문제점 ... 59
    18. 제3장 선행 연구문헌 고찰 및 분석 자료 ... 63
    19. 제1절 선행 연구문헌 고찰 ... 63
    20. 1. 가격탄력성 추정 관련 주요 이슈 ... 64
    21. 2. 선행 연구결과 ... 75
    22. 3. 소결 ... 85
    23. 제2절 분석 자료 설명: 가계동향조사 ... 87
    24. 제3절 기술 통계량 ... 96
    25. 제4장 분석 결과 ... 103
    26. 제1절 가구 특성 변수별 전력 소비 패턴 비교ㆍ분석 ... 103
    27. 1. 전체 가구의 전력 소비 패턴 비교ㆍ분석 ... 103
    28. 2. 1인 가구의 전력 소비패턴 비교ㆍ분석 ... 131
    29. 제2절 전력 수요 가격 탄력성 분석: 합동 자료(pooled data) 적용 ... 138
    30. 1. 연도별 가격 탄력성 분석 결과(2010~2014년 합동 자료 적용) ... 138
    31. 2. 월별 가격 탄력성 분석 결과 ... 154
    32. 제3절 냉방수요의 가격 탄력성 분석 ... 159
    33. 1. 냉방수요 가격탄력성 ... 159
    34. 2. 자료 구축 ... 166
    35. 3. 냉방수요 추정 ... 170
    36. 4. 소결 ... 177
    37. 제5장 결론 및 정책 시사점 ... 179
    38. 참고문헌 ... 187
    39. 끝페이지 ... 193
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